South Africa remains a net wheat importer, with imports set to remain high in 2025/26

South Africa continues to be a net wheat importer. As of the start of the MY 2025/26 (3 October), the country had already imported 20,362 tonnes of wheat, with the main suppliers being Australia (52%), Lithuania (43%), and Poland (5%).

Total wheat imports for the MY 2025/26 are forecast at around 1.74 million tonnes, slightly down from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024/25 due to an expected modest recovery in domestic production. Nevertheless, imports will remain substantial, covering nearly half of the country’s annual consumption, estimated at 3.8 million tonnes.

South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat starting in the MY 2003/04. Prior to that, annual imports averaged around 458,000 tonnes, reflecting high consumption and a reduction in wheat-planted areas. Since 1997/98, wheat plantings in the country fell below one million hectares due to low profitability for farmers and less favorable climatic conditions, particularly in the Free State province.

Following the deregulation of agricultural markets, South African farmers had to compete on the global market. This increased profitability only in a few central regions with favorable conditions for high-quality wheat production, including the Western Cape and irrigated areas in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West provinces.

In recent years, wheat yields have improved significantly. While in 1997/98 yields were below 2 tonnes per hectare, by the 2024/25 season they had risen to 3.8 tonnes per hectare. The expected wheat harvest for 2025/26 is 2.03 million tonnes, insufficient to meet domestic demand, meaning the country will need to import approximately 1.74 million tonnes to cover consumer needs.

Tags: wheat, South Africa, imports