Slow canola planting in Canada supports EU rapeseed prices

The cold and rainy weather in Canada is delaying the sowing of canola, which supports the stock prices of canola and rapeseed, although precipitation in Australia improves the prospects for the future canola crop.

As of May 20, in Saskatchewan 56% of the planned areas were planted with canola, and in Alberta – 58% of the areas, although last year at this time 68% and 62% were planted, respectively. Next week, cyclones will bring a new wave of precipitation to the Canadian prairies, which will replenish soil moisture reserves, but slow down sowing.

On the Winnipeg stock exchange this week, the July canola futures rose 0.9% to 672 CAD/t or 489 $/t (+8.7% for the month), and November – 0.7% to 693 CAD/t or 505 $/t (+9.1% for the month, +12.7% for the year).

the Acceleration of soybean planting in the United States lowers the price of soybeans, which increases the pressure on the quotes of canola, especially amid significant stocks of old crop and increasing the pace of planting in Canada.

Additional support for rapeseed prices was provided by the reduction by MARS experts in the May report of the forecast of rapeseed yield in the EU compared to the April estimates from 3.26 to 3.21 t/ha, which will exceed last year’s 3.18 t/ha.

On the MATIF exchange in Paris, the August futures for rapeseed last week reached the highest level since March 2023 at 495 €/t, but then fell to 492.5 €/t or $532/t (+0.9% per week, +5.9% per month, +18% per year).

In 2023/24 MY, as of May 3, the EU imported only 4.9 mln tonnes of rapeseed, down 38% compared to 2022/23 MY.

This week in Ukraine there were minor rains, although uneven, which will improve the condition of crops and the yield potential, especially against the background of moderate temperatures that will prevail for several weeks. Experts believe that rapeseed harvesting will start 2 weeks earlier than usual in the south of the country – from June 8-15, which will significantly increase supply on the EU market.

Export prices for rapeseed of the new harvest increased to 430-450 USD/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports and 460-470 €/t with delivery to Germany in August – September.

Rains in the main growing regions of canola in Australia improve the prospects of the crop, so farmers will not reduce the area under it in favor of wheat or barley. Data on canola sowing in Canada and Australia will significantly affect the quotes in the coming weeks.

Tags: rapeseed, EU, prices, Canada