For 17 days now, the U.S. federal government shutdown has held the agricultural sector hostage, blocking USDA reports on exports and crop yields. “The market is blind, farmers are panicking,” analysts at Reuters note. Without data on corn sales (900,000–2 million tons), soybeans (500,000–1.4 million tons), and wheat (300,000–650,000 tons), traders are losing their bearings while farmers struggle to hedge effectively.
At the peak of the late-crop harvest (60% soybeans, up to 50% corn), rains across the Corn Belt and lower-than-expected yields are hitting producers hard. Global competition adds pressure: Canada, Europe, and Russia boast record wheat crops, while South America is preparing for abundant soybean plantings. Tensions are further fueled by U.S.–China trade talks scheduled for late October, which could reshape agricultural exports. Private analysts are trying to fill the information gap, but their estimates can’t replace the USDA’s satellite-based data.
The next Senate vote is expected no earlier than Monday, October 20, but chances for a breakthrough remain slim — according to Polymarket, the probability of resolving the shutdown by the end of the week is below 20%. If the budget impasse continues, volatility in agricultural markets will intensify, and the economic fallout will affect not only U.S. farmers but also global trade.
