Shortage of corn supply has led to an increase in purchase prices in Ukraine, although world prices remain stable

Purchase price of corn in Ukraine this week rose to the level of prices for feed wheat amid limited supply from producers and forecasts of reduced yield.

Since Monday, export prices for corn for delivery to the ports of the black sea increased by 3-5 $/t to 180-185 $/t or 8350-8500 UAH/t, and for deliveries in December, traders are already offering 188-189 $/t.

In MY 2023/24, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Spain, China and Egypt. But this year, the corn harvest in the EU, in particular in Spain, is slightly better, which will lead to the reduction of imports. However, the demand for Ukrainian corn will remain high amid forecasts of a 30% decline in exports from Ukraine and a decline in the Russian corn harvest.

Currently, Ukrainian corn on CPT-port basis is traded at $20/t more expensive than December futures in Chicago, which limits further price growth. In addition, the U.S. plans to harvest a near-record corn crop this year.

December corn futures in Chicago during the week fell by 2% to 159,4 $/t (+1% for the month) in anticipation of the updated USDA forecast, which will be released on September 12.

In 2024/25 MY (as of September 8), the EU increased imports of corn by 20% to 3.85 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, of which 2.3 mln tonnes or 60% were supplied from Ukraine. The main importers this season were Spain (1.28 mln tons) and the Netherlands (788 thsd tons).

the November corn futures on the stock exchange in Paris during the week fell by 0.5% to 202,75 €/t or 223,4 $/t (which corresponds to the level of last month), not responding to forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU and high rates of imports in the beginning of the season.

Traders expect lower forecasts of world production and stocks of corn in the new USDA report, which will support the quotes.

Dry and hot weather in Brazil delays the sowing of corn first crop and soybeans, so the results of the sowing stock prices for corn in October – November may resume growth.

Tags: Ukraine, China, Egypt, corn, Brazil, EU, prices, USA