Several factors influencing the US soybean market in 2026

Chris Six, a Missouri agricultural economist, stated that the outlook for the 2026 soybean market is neither bleak nor optimistic. A number of external factors will influence soybean prices.

The 2025 crop season ended with strong results. A recent USDA report indicates that soybean production in Missouri exceeded both 2023 and 2024 targets. Despite the impressive reported yields, Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, notes significant regional variations in production. This discrepancy led to inflated farmer expectations, which, in turn, resulted in disappointment. Speaking about the outlook for the 2026 season, Brown identified two main factors determining soybean prospects: weather and international trade. One positive factor for soybeans is the increasing supply of biofuels.

Drought’s Impact on Soybeans

“Does anyone want to talk about soybean yields? No, really, no one, right? Missouri is struggling right now,” Brown told a group of farmers at a crop management conference hosted by the University of Missouri in December.

Late-season drought conditions affected much of the state, resulting in smaller bean sizes and lower yields. According to Zach Lisor, a climatologist at the University of Missouri, August in Missouri was the second-driest on record since 1909.

Looking ahead to 2026, Brown and other soybean farmers emphasized that early planting this year is crucial. A group of three Missouri soybean farmers confirmed that planting in early to mid-April helped boost yields in 2025.

International Trade and Soybeans

Brown noted that international trade and politics have a significant impact on soybean price dynamics in the US. He pointed out that President Donald Trump’s tweet on X (formerly Twitter) in August led to a nearly 40-cent jump in soybean prices.

Similar publications and international tariffs on products have impacted the US market

Brown noted: “We’ve seen tariffs on Brazilian products due to fentanyl smuggling from Canada to Brazil. We’ve also seen tariffs on some Brazilian products due to the situation with the former Brazilian president. We’ve also seen tariffs on some Indian products because India buys Russian oil. None of this is within the control of the US agricultural sector, right? However, it does impact our products and prices.”

Brown added that during the recent government shutdown, the US and China reached an agreement to export American soybeans to China, although little information about this deal has been released beyond the White House press release.

Brown stated, “By the end of 2025, soybean production will increase by 12 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 441 million bushels,” the press release stated. Then, Treasury Secretary Scott Bechtold stated at a press conference, “We expect to achieve this goal by the end of February.”

Brown also noted that the agreement includes a commitment to supply 25 million bushels of soybeans annually for the next three years, for a total of more than 919 million bushels.

Brown stated, “Despite this agreement, tariffs on our soybeans remain at 13%. They were reduced from 23% to 13%; it should be remembered that tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are only 3%.”

Biofuels Proposal

Brown remains hopeful that biofuels proposals could increase demand for soybean and other vegetable oils.

He said, “Whether it’s soybean, canola, or sunflower oil, demand for these vegetable oils, driven by government policy, is growing. That’s partly why we’re starting to see soybean and canola oil appear in Missouri.”

Overall, Brown doesn’t expect a significant increase in soybean acreage by 2026.

“Some positive factors are emerging,” he said. “I think once these biofuels regulations are finalized, they will have a positive impact on both the soybean and corn markets. But right now, we only have the proposal, and we’re waiting for final clarification. From a financial perspective, as I mentioned, profitability in 2026 won’t be terrible, but it won’t be perfect either.”

Tags: soybean, USA