September wheat futures for the week fell by 3-11% and are trading 30-51% lower than last year

Wheat quotations on world exchanges fell to record lows amid weak export demand caused by a good domestic harvest in importing countries. Traders drew attention to the increase in wheat harvest in the United States by 5 million tons (compared to the previous season), but did not react to the reduction in production forecasts for the EU by 7 million tons, Ukraine by 1.5 million tons and Russia by 8.5 million tons.

During the week, September futures fell another 3-11% and are trading 30-51% lower than last year. At the same time, December futures are trading 5-8% more expensive, which indicates traders’ hopes for increased demand in the second half of the season.

On Monday, September futures declined:

• by 0.9% to 183 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-6% for the week, -37% for the year),
• by 1% to 192.9 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3%, -41%),
• by 1.9% to 199 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-11.7%, -51%),
• by 2.6% to 189.5 €/t or 211.6 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-6.9%, -30%).

So far, the market has not reacted to the positive export data and the deterioration of spring wheat crops in the United States.

During the week of August 16-22, wheat exports from the United States increased by 44% to 537.2 thousand tons, and in total in the season amounted to 5.146 million tons, which is 27.7% higher than last year. As of August 25, spring wheat in the U.S. was harvested on 51% of the area (53% on average for 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 4% to 69% (37% last year).

In 2024/25 MY (as of August 23), Ukraine exported 3.09 mln tonnes of wheat, almost double the 1.6 mln tonnes in the same period in 2023/24 MY, due to lower wheat prices than competitors at the beginning of the season.

Export purchase prices in Ukraine remain at the level of 9200-9400 UAH/t or 195-200 USD/t for food and 8200-8300 UAH/t or 174-175 USD/t for feed wheat, but traders have reduced purchases due to reduced demand.

the bid Prices of Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% do not fall below 220 $/t FOB, despite the decline in exports, which allows U.S. farmers to increase exports of soft U.S. wheat, which is now the cheapest on the world market.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, prices, wheat, USA