Russia’s wheat harvest forecast of 91 mln tons is overly optimistic – SovEcon

The 91 million ton wheat harvest estimate for the new season appears overly optimistic at this stage, according to a statement from Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon analytical center. Analysts believe that achieving this level requires both a near-record yield and an expansion (or maintenance) of the cultivated area.

Previously, Dmitry Rylko, CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), announced a preliminary estimate of 91 million tonnes for the MY 2026/27. This forecast has been raised from 88 million tonnes.

SovEcon notes that achieving the 91 million tonne target requires a combination of several factors: high yields (at the near-record level of 2025 – 3.4 t/ha), and either no reduction or an increase in the cultivated area. Analysts do not currently consider this combination as a baseline.

A yield of 3.4 t/ha is the second-highest in history. The record was set in 2022 – 3.5 t/ha.

SovEcon does not currently foresee any acreage expansion. According to their estimates:

• Acreage under winter wheat will likely remain at last year’s level;
• Acreage under spring wheat is declining – from 13 million hectares in 2023 to 11.1 million hectares in 2025. A further moderate decline is expected in 2026.

Overall, experts assess the prospects for the new harvest as good, and weather conditions as favorable.

Tags: Russia, wheat, crop forecast