By the end of the 2024/25 agricultural season, which concludes on June 30, Russia’s share in the global wheat market is expected to decline to 20% from 25% in the previous season. Despite this, the country will retain its position as the leading wheat exporter. The decline in exports is attributed not only to a lower 2024 harvest but also to negative profitability for exporters and strong yields from competitors, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
In the previous season, thanks to a record harvest, Russia exported 74 million tons of grain, including 54 million tons of wheat. According to the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers, exports in the 2024/25 marketing year could reach up to 53 million tons, including 43 million tons of wheat. However, analysts at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimate potential wheat exports between 38.5 and 42.5 million tons, depending on market conditions.
Several factors are affecting exports: a limited quota of 10.6 million tons in the second half of the season, the strengthening of the ruble, and farmers’ reluctance to lower prices. At the same time, global wheat prices remain stable due to an oversupply. Wheat stocks in Europe turned out to be higher than expected, and the U.S. has become the cheapest wheat exporter. As a result, Romanian and Bulgarian wheat is currently priced lower than Russian wheat.
Despite increasing competition, Russia remains the world’s top wheat exporter, though its share will drop to 20%. The primary buyers of Russian grain continue to be Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia. However, due to lower demand, shipments to Turkey, Iran, China, and Pakistan have decreased, while exports to African nations, including Nigeria, Kenya, and Morocco, have grown.
With Iran resuming purchases and Turkey potentially increasing demand, Russian exporters hope to reach sales of 9–9.5 million tons within the established export quota.
