Russia’s grain harvest may decline due to drought in a key region for wheat production and exports

Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center sees a threat of continued drought in May in the eastern part of the Southern Federal District, one of the country’s key regions for wheat production and exports, Bloomberg reports.

“In the vast majority of the European part of Russia, conditions for spring sowing and vegetation of most crops will be mostly close to average,” the weather forecast for May says.

The threat of drought will remain in the eastern half of the southern federal district amid a possible precipitation deficit, forecasters said.

Industry analysts have already begun to lower their grain harvest forecasts amid dry weather in the south of the country.

Roman Wilfand, scientific director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, on Friday described the weather situation for crops as “generally normal,” noting that it was satisfactory in the Southern and North Caucasus districts, but slightly favorable in some of their areas.

Russia’s grain harvest in 2024 may decline to 132 million tons from 144.9 million tons in 2023, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported last week.

As a reminder, Russia plans to export up to 70 million tons of grain in 2024. In 2023, Russia exported 66 million tons of grain, including 51 million tons of wheat.

Tags: wheat, drought, crop forecast, Russia