Russian wheat exports will decrease by almost 20% this season

According to the results of the MY 2024/25, Russian wheat exports will decrease by 19.8%, to 41.7 million tons, the Price Index Center predicts. The main reason is a sharp drop in supplies in the second half of the season, Kommersant writes.

According to Sovekon, exports will amount to 40.9 million tons (–22% y/y), and Rusagrotrans expects 41.5 million tons (–25.2%). In January-April, shipments fell by 40%, in March-April – by 60%, notes Dmitry Krasnov from Reksoft Consulting.

Among the factors are low stocks in the southern regions, high railway tariffs, the strengthening of the ruble and a decrease in world prices.

The federal export quota (10.6 million tons as of February 15) was selected by only 76.4%. The government has increased the limit of additional quota for companies, but experts doubt the effectiveness of the measure due to negative profitability.

In the new season, analysts expect supplies to increase to 42-45 million tons due to the harvest and demand from the Middle East and Asia.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat