Russian wheat exports may drop to 40.7 mln tons

Russian wheat exports in the MY 2024/25 are showing a downward trend, which is a consequence of low profitability of supplies and strict state regulation. According to the forecasts of the analytical center “SovEkon”, the volume of exports may decrease to 40.7 million tons, which is lower than the average of the last five years. This is a significant drop compared to the record year of 2023, when Russia exported 54 million tons of wheat.

One of the main reasons for the decrease in exports is the introduction of quotas for grain supplies. From February 15, 2024, the Russian government has established a quota for wheat exports in the amount of 10.6 million tons, which is significantly lower than last year’s level. In addition, the increase in export duties further reduces the profitability of sales to foreign markets. Because of this, large traders are holding back shipments, waiting for more favorable conditions.

The situation is also affected by the increase in domestic prices for wheat. Due to weak exports, they exceeded the $250 per ton (FOB) mark. At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble makes exports less profitable for Russian producers, forcing them to reorient themselves to the domestic market or reduce production.

In addition to economic factors, agro-climatic conditions also affect the decrease in exports. The wheat harvest in Russia in 2024 amounted to about 82.6 million tons, which is significantly less than in the previous two years. Drought conditions and a reduction in sown areas have reduced the amount of grain available for export. Despite this, wheat production is expected to increase slightly in 2025 to 87.5 million tons.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat