Russia will lose 5% of the world wheat market due to poor harvest

Russian agricultural consulting company IKAR reported on Thursday that, according to the baseline scenario, wheat exports in 2025/26 will amount to 41 million tons, down from 43.5 million tons expected in the current season, and grain exports will reach 52 million tons.

As a result, the share of Russia in the global wheat trade will decrease to 20% in the export season 2024/25 from 25% in the previous season, the company added.

The agency reported that the country is experiencing “record uncertainty about the future winter crop harvest in 2025” due to a lack of moisture in the soil in the fall.

Despite this year’s lower harvest, Russia continued to export a record amount of wheat in July-December 2024, with exports reaching 28.5 million tons, according to IKAR.

In the second half of the season, Russian exports are expected to slow down due to government measures to restrict exports, such as low export quotas and high export duties.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat, crop condition