Russia will be able to export only 2 mln tons of wheat in April

In April 2025, wheat exports from Russia fell sharply – only 1.3 million tons in the first 20 days of the month, which is 2.8 times less than in the same period last year. It is expected that 2 million tons will be exported for the whole month, significantly below the five-year average of 3.5 million tons. This is the fourth month in a row when export volumes are below normal. The reasons were low margins, loss of competitiveness and reduced interest from key buyers.

The number of importing countries decreased significantly – from 35 to 15. The largest buyers were Iran, Turkey and Libya, but even in these directions a decrease in volumes was recorded. In particular, Egypt reduced purchases by 8.2 times, and Israel, Saudi Arabia and Yemen also significantly reduced imports. At the same time, Lebanon, Tanzania and Oman showed some growth, although the overall volumes remain modest.

Amid the reduction in supplies, more and more countries are preferring other suppliers. The Algerian agency OAIC recently purchased 570-600 thousand tons of wheat of any origin at a price of $267.5 per ton C&F. According to analysts, Russian wheat was $2-3 more expensive, which could have been a decisive factor. Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine are likely to have been the suppliers, offering more favorable conditions.

The price situation on the market only worsens the situation of Russian exporters. The price of Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) fluctuates within $250-254 per ton, which is higher than the French ($244) and American ($231). This makes it impossible to maintain export potential at the level of previous years, especially in conditions of increasing competition.

In addition to price factors, the number of market participants has decreased from 67 companies to 21. The number of ports has also decreased from 24 to 11. The largest losses were recorded in the ports of the Black Sea region. The only exception was the Baltic port of Vysotsk, which even increased its transshipment volumes.

According to estimates by the analytical center “Sovecon”, total wheat exports from Russia in the 2024-2025 season will amount to 40.7 million tons, while the US Department of Agriculture predicts 44 million tons. In conditions of high prices and limited supply on the domestic market, it will not be easy to restore competitiveness.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat