Russia plans grain export quota in the second half of the season: more than last year, but less than in MY 2023/24

The Russian government is considering the possibility of introducing a grain export quota of 20 million tons for the second half of the season. This is significantly more than last year, but still less than in the MY 2023/24, writes Fastmarkets.

According to the published information, a quota of 20 million tons is currently being considered for the period from February 15 to June 30. It may include wheat, corn and barley, but without rye. This concerns exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

In addition, the project may revise the quota distribution mechanism, taking into account deliveries to other EAEU countries at the level of “historical” export volumes. That is, companies that actively exported within the EAEU may receive an appropriate share of the quota. The volumes and conditions may still change until final approval.

Unlike last year, the current quota covers all grains, not just wheat. Last year, it was 10.6 million tons for the 2024/25 season.

Although the new quota is significantly higher than last year’s, it is still lower than in MY 2023/24, when Russia harvested a record harvest and set an export record: initially a quota of 24 million tons was set, and later it was increased by another 5 million tons.

In MY 2023/24, about 21 million tons of wheat, about 3 million tons of corn and 3 million tons of barley were exported within the total quota of 29 million tons.

As for the current announcement, traders do not consider it “news”, since 20 million tons for the second half of the season seems logical and is unlikely to affect prices.

In the MY 2025/26, the official grain export forecast is 50 million tonnes, of which about 20 million tonnes have already been shipped as of the end of October. In November, exports, according to local analytical agencies, could amount to about 5.5 million tonnes.

Russia is likely to harvest its third-largest crop: wheat production has already reached 93.85 million tonnes, including the harvest from temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, and the harvest is complete on 97% of the area. The gross barley harvest is 20.53 million tonnes with a similar level of progress, while corn was harvested on only 43% of the area, yielding about 7 million tonnes.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat, restrictions