Russia is unlikely to succeed in implementing the Black Sea blockade – ISW

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is unlikely to attempt a complete blockade of Ukraine, despite the increased measures against civilian vessels.

This assumption was made by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“A complete blockade of Ukraine in the Black Sea by Russia would mean that Russian troops could fire on all ships trying to reach Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia will try to implement such a complete blockade without provoking a military conflict with Black Sea countries, including NATO members Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, which the Kremlin has so far tried to avoid,” the ISW report says.

Russia’s current position in the Black Sea most likely indicates that it is creating conditions for the search of civilian and commercial vessels, while claiming the blockade as a means of gaining additional influence.

Earlier, Russia announced that it was withdrawing the guarantees of safety of navigation under the grain deal and curtailing the maritime humanitarian corridor in the northwestern Black Sea.

Tags: Russia, blocking ports, Ukraine