Russia doubles grain export quota for 2026

The Russian government has decided to double the tariff quota for grain exports in 2026 to 20 million tonnes, up from 10.6 million tonnes in 2025. The move is driven by the need to market a record grain harvest estimated at 137 million tonnes, as the domestic market is unable to absorb such large volumes of production.

According to a government decree, the quota will apply to exports of wheat, meslin, barley and corn outside the Eurasian Economic Union. In 2025, the quota covered only wheat. Authorities expect that expanding both the list of crops and the overall volume will encourage exporters to fully utilize the quotas allocated to them.

In the previous agricultural season, Russia exported about 53 million tonnes of grain, including 44 million tonnes of wheat. For the current season, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates Russia’s grain export potential at around 50 million tonnes amid a high harvest. The government says the decision aims to maintain a balance between domestic grain supply and foreign shipments, taking into account projected production and consumption levels.

The export quota mechanism allows free grain exports from the start of the season until February 14. In the second half of the season, from February 15 to June 30, exports are permitted only within the quota and subject to a “floating” export duty, the size of which depends on global price conditions. Shipments outside the quota are charged a duty equal to 50% of the customs value of the cargo, but not less than €100 per tonne. Since 2024, the quota has been divided into a main and an additional portion, distributed under different allocation rules.

Market participants note that increasing the quota alone does not guarantee a sharp rise in exports. With the ruble remaining strong, grain exports are often unprofitable, especially for small and medium-sized farms. At the same time, regulators are relying on administrative incentives to push shipments abroad, as record production volumes require access to foreign markets.

According to the head of the Russian Grain Union, exports could become more active if the ruble weakens to around 90 per dollar. Otherwise, as in the previous year, the export quota may not be fully used. The union estimates that about 28 million tonnes of grain will be exported by the end of December, compared with 32 million tonnes over the same period last year. Even so, a pickup in shipments later in the season is unlikely to resolve structural problems in the sector, and a significant share of exports may have to be carried over into spring until economic conditions for farmers improve.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat