Russia demonstrates record low rates of wheat exports

“SovEcon lowered its estimate of wheat exports in 2024/25 season to 42.8 mln tonnes from 43.7 mln tonnes a month earlier. Last season, Russia shipped 52.4 mln tonnes, while the average for the three years was 44.2 mln tonnes. The estimate was revised against the background of slow shipments.

The lowered estimate of wheat exports reflects the slow pace of shipments and sales. January exports are estimated at 2.1 mln tons, which is 1.0 mln tons below the average and the lowest since January 2022, when 2.0 mln tons were exported.

The current margin of domestic export operations remains close to zero or in the negative zone. Unless exporters’ margins increase significantly, we do not expect wheat exports to accelerate in the short term.

In mid-February, the 10.6 mln tonnes quota will come into effect and will be in place until the end of the season. We do not rule out the possibility of increasing the quota, especially if export prices rise, but this is not our main scenario for now.

In January, the USDA lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1 mln tonnes to 46 mln tonnes. This is still an extremely high figure. We expect it to decline in the future, which is likely to be accompanied by higher export estimates for the US and Argentina.

The decline in Russian export activity will benefit the global wheat market, as the reduced supply from Russia will contribute to the growing tension in the global balance.

Tags: wheat, Russia, export, prices