Romanian Grains and Oilseeds Market in March: Prices, Climate Challenges and Prospects

Romania: Wheat Prices and Climate Change

Over the week of March 7-14, the price of Romanian milling wheat continued to rise, aligning with global trends and the potential for drought in Eastern Europe, amid excessive moisture in some regions of France.

The average price of milling wheat increased by $5 per ton over the week, reaching $253 per ton FOB Constanța, which is $15 per ton higher than a month ago (+$45 per ton year-on-year).

According to official data, wheat exports from July to December 2024/25 reached 4.3 million tons, showing a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous year (-11% year-on-year), facing stiff regional competition. UkrAgroConsult estimates that Romania could export 7 million tons of wheat this season, surpassing the five-year average of 6.4 million tons.

In Romania, temperatures continue to fluctuate, with a new cold wave expected from March 16. This poses certain risks to winter crops, which have already resumed vegetation following a warm start to March. However, the extent of damage to crops will become clear later and could drive prices upward in the near future.

Beyond fluctuating temperatures, soil moisture conditions are largely favorable for winter crops. According to the National Meteorological Administration (ANM), the 2025 winter season concluded without a soil water deficit—a first in the past five years. No drought phenomena were observed during the winter period.

ANM experts reported that farmers have begun sowing early spring crops (peas, chickpeas, alfalfa), which should benefit from the current soil moisture levels. Next week, up to 35 mm of precipitation is expected in Romania’s southern, central, and western regions. For now, market participants remain optimistic about the potential of the new harvest in Romania.

Romania: Risks of Reduced Feed Demand

On the domestic market, the Veterinary Medicine Department of the Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (ASAS) raised concerns about an epidemiological threat due to a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in neighboring Hungary (reported on March 7). According to ASAS, the virus could have a devastating impact on Romania’s food security, given that all susceptible animals lacking antibodies—preventive vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease was discontinued in the European Community’s health strategy since 1992—are at risk.

As a result, starting March 11, all Romanian institutions tasked with disease control will implement necessary measures. These include a ban on transporting animal products (including meat and milk from cloven-hoofed animals), live animals (cattle, sheep, goats, pigs), horses, feed, bedding straw, compost, and manure from Hungary to Romania.

Over 97% of Eligible Farmers Approved for 2024 Campaign Payments

The Agency for Agricultural Payments and Interventions (APIA) announced that it has approved payments for over 97% of eligible farmers in the 2024 campaign, totaling €699.45 million (3.48 billion lei). These are the final payments for 2024, benefiting 692,464 farmers.

From early December 2024 to the present, APIA has disbursed €546.26 million from the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund to 690,464 beneficiaries. Additional costs were covered by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (€119.62 million) and co-financing from the National Budget (€21.34 million). Meanwhile, APIA continues its campaign, accepting applications for 2025 payments.

Romania’s Oilseed Market

Despite dwindling sunflower seed stocks in Romania following a poor harvest, prices remain stagnant. Additionally, last week (March 7-14), the FOB price for sunflower seeds dropped by approximately $5 per ton due to a weakening dollar, delivering disappointing news to farmers holding old crop stocks.

The price of sunflower seeds fell to $585 per ton DAP Constanța, while farmers are prepared to hold remaining stocks until prices reach $600 per ton. If prices continue to stagnate or decline, farmers may be forced to increase sales, allowing processors to purchase more local raw materials by the season’s end.

Market participants note that, to address the sunflower seed shortage and maintain sunflower oil supplies, Romanian processors are refining crude oil imported from Ukraine this season, with the bulk arriving in November 2024.

According to official statistics, from September to December 2024/25, Romania imported 23,880 tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil, a significant increase from the previous year (8,000 tons from September to August 2023/24). The availability of crude oil stocks is another factor curbing sunflower seed price spikes in Romania.

However, the potential for price increases remains, as sunflower seed exports appear substantial despite the multi-year low harvest. From September to December 2024/25, Romania exported around 700,000 tons of sunflower seeds, primarily to EU buyers, notably Bulgaria.

This volume is only 9% lower than the same period last year, confirming a sharp decline in sunflower seed processing in Romania this season and the approach of near-zero stocks at the start of the new season.