Rising vegetable oil prices and falling euro exchange rate support rapeseed quotes

The sharp increase in vegetable oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate continue to support the recovery of rapeseed quotations on European exchanges.

November rapeseed contracts on the Paris exchange rose 1.2% to €471.75/t on October 7, up 3% for the week as oil prices rose. However, the euro’s 1.4% decline for the week adjusted the dollar price to $546/t. The government crisis in France continues to weigh on the euro, which in turn supports rapeseed prices in euro terms.

At the same time, the decline in feed grain prices led to a drop in rapeseed meal prices in the EU, which limits further growth in rapeseed quotations.

Against the backdrop of a strengthening oil market, November palm oil quotes increased by 2.7% in two days to $1,090/t (+4.5% in two weeks) ahead of the publication of a report on production, exports and stocks in Malaysia, as well as due to a sharp increase in sunflower oil prices caused by forecasts of a reduced harvest in Ukraine.

Sunflower oil quotes on the Trading Economics platform rose by 3.6% to $1,410/t over the week (+3.6% over two weeks). The price increase is mainly due to prolonged rains in Ukraine and delays in deliveries of the new crop.

In the North American market, November canola futures in Winnipeg rose by only 0.5% over the week to CAD 616/t or $440/t, remaining under pressure from favorable harvesting conditions and forecasts of a high canola harvest in Canada, as well as the lack of prospects for a recovery in exports to China.

Adding to the pressure on the market is an increase in the Australian crop forecast. According to Oil World, favorable weather in recent weeks has created the prerequisites for a record canola harvest in 2025. Analysts have increased the forecast for Australian canola production by 0.25 million tons to 6.85 million tons compared to the September forecast (6.6 million tons in 2024).

In general, favorable conditions for soybean sowing in South America, active soybean harvesting in the USA, a record oilseed harvest in the Russian Federation, and the resumption of soybean and sunflower harvesting in Ukraine next week may increase pressure on oilseed quotations both on exchanges and in the physical market.

Tags: prices, edible oils