Rising prices for Russian and European wheat support purchase prices in Ukraine

Rise in prices for Russian wheat led to higher prices for European and Ukrainian wheat, while the American grain for the month fell by 1-3% amid declining export demand.

According to “Rusagrotrans”, during the week, export demand prices for Russian wheat with protein 12.5% and delivery in January increased by $7/t to a 2-month high of 235 $/t FOB amid strong demand from North Africa.

During this time, demand prices for French wheat increased by 2 $/t to 242 $/t, for American wheat – fell by 5 $/t to 244 $/t, for German wheat – remained at 254 $/t on FOB basis.

In Ukraine, against the background of the devaluation of the hryvnia, the demand prices for wheat in the ports of the Black Sea for the week increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 9950-10100 UAH/t or 209-214 $/t for food wheat, and by 100-200 UAH/t to 9500-9600 UAH/t or 204-205 $/t for feed wheat. At the same time, the demand prices for deliveries to the port of Constanta increased to 227-228 USD/t for milling wheat and 225-226 USD/t for feed wheat, indicating the potential for further price increases for Ukrainian grain. Processors are actively buying milling wheat at 9600-10200 UAH/t with delivery to the mill. Farmers are restraining sales, but traders have also limited purchases as export demand has declined significantly.

In 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 9.2 mln tonnes of wheat, up 37% compared to 6.7 mln tonnes in 2023, but in the first half of December, the exports decreased to 213 thsd tonnes compared to 814 thsd tonnes in the same period of December 2023.

March wheat futures yesterday declined:

• by 0.4% to 202.1 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.9% for the month),
• by 0.4% to 205.5 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.4%),
• by 0.3% to 219.8 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.7%).

At the same time, the March wheat futures on the Paris Euronext increased by 1.7% to 233.5 €/t or 245.4 $/t (+4.2% for the month).

Price of European wheat supported the results of the tender in Saudi Arabia, where the state Agency GFSA purchased 804 thousand tons of milling wheat with protein 12.5% (including European origin) at a price of 268,87 $/t CFR, and the volume of purchases was higher than expected.

In 2024/25 MY, the EU countries exported only 10.2 mln tonnes of wheat, down 29% compared to last year. High prices of European wheat, increasing production in Argentina and Australia and active supplies from Russia do not give any chances to increase exports from the EU.

Wheat exports from the United States for 6-12 December increased by 20% to 298 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 11,537 million tons, which is 29.4% higher than the corresponding figure last year.

The pace of wheat exports from Russia remains high. In December, it may reach 3-3.5 mln tonnes, and in the first half of the season it will amount to 28-28.5 mln tonnes, as 25.3 mln tonnes were shipped as of December 1.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat