Record wheat harvest in India is under threat due to weather conditions

India plans to achieve record wheat production in MY 2024-25, setting a target of 115 mln tons. The planted area under winter wheat increased to a historic high of 324.38 mln hectares, which was made possible by favorable conditions and government support programs. At the same time, there is a threat of yield decline due to abnormally high temperatures in key growing regions, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the temperature in the country’s wheat belt may rise by 2-3°C in the coming weeks. The minimum temperatures have already exceeded 15°C in some areas, which may negatively affect plant growth and final yields. If the warming continues, India risks not reaching its planned production levels.

The government of India is trying to resolve the situation on the market by increasing the volume of wheat sales under the state program Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). In particular, the weekly sales volume has been increased from 1.5 mln tons to 4 mln tons, which should help to reduce prices, which remain higher than the minimum support price (MSP). However, the expected increase in production and the arrival of the new harvest may cause a further decline in grain prices.

Meanwhile, Australia is forecasting a possible reduction in India’s wheat import duty by the end of 2025. This may be a necessary step if local production does not reach the projected volumes due to weather factors. Some analysts suggest that the harvest may fall below 110 million tons in the event of further climate change.

Researchers also draw attention to the negative impact of air pollution on agriculture. According to a study by Stanford University, nitrogen dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants cause a 10% reduction in wheat and rice yields in India. This is another risk factor that could affect future production figures.

Thus, although India has ambitious plans for a record harvest, the impact of weather changes and air pollution may make adjustments. Further actions by the government, as well as possible adjustments to import policy, will determine the market dynamics in the coming months.

Tags: India, drought, crop forecast, wheat