Record wheat harvest in Argentina creates logistical challenges and puts pressure on prices

Argentina is posting record wheat harvests in the MY 2025/26, according to analysts from consulting firm Expana. The Rosario Grain Exchange now estimates the country’s wheat production at 27.7 million tonnes, surpassing the previous forecast of 25.5 million tonnes from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE). Meanwhile, BAGE has raised its own estimate to 27.1 million tonnes and notes that further upward revisions are possible as harvesting continues. Over the past week, harvest progress jumped more than 13 percentage points to 73.3% complete. This bumper crop is creating logistical challenges and putting downward pressure on wheat prices.

Industry sources report that the harvest volume is so large that it has sparked a real rush to move grain to export points. Farmers are eager to clear storage and make space for new deliveries. As a result, truck deliveries to the river terminal in Rosario reached a record 2 million tonnes in November, nearly double the usual volumes seen in recent years, highlighting the scale of the grain flow.

The large harvest is also affecting prices – Argentine wheat FOB for January delivery is trading at $206–209/mt, making it more competitive compared to supplies from the Black Sea region, France, and the United States. This has already stimulated fresh demand from international buyers.

Market sources indicate that China’s state-owned agricultural company Cofco International purchased around 65,000 tonnes of Argentine wheat this week. According to Bloomberg, this marks the first significant bulk commercial shipment between Argentina and China since the 1990s, effectively opening a new trade corridor between the two countries.

Although some buyers have expressed concerns about crop quality, the market is generally absorbing the large supply well, with competitive prices attracting international traders. Experts note that the situation underscores Argentina’s growing role as a key wheat supplier in the global market.

Tags: export, prices, wheat, Argentina, crop forecast