Record US corn crop adds pressure to global prices

The global corn market is entering 2026 under pressure from surplus supply despite relatively active trade flows. Price movements in Chicago indicate that the market is once again focused on large inventories rather than export optimism. Analysts note that strong shipment figures are partly masking weaker underlying demand fundamentals.

Raphael Bulascoschi, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, who tracks global corn supply-and-demand dynamics across the United States, Brazil, and major importing countries, says record U.S. production is the key factor weighing on the market. According to the USDA, the U.S. harvested about 432 million mt of corn in 2025, with average yields near 11.7 mt/ha.

Such production volumes have shifted the market balance firmly toward surplus conditions, increasing the risk of inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on prices. In this environment, futures markets are reacting more to supply-side risks than to short-term export performance.

At the same time, rising U.S. corn exports are largely offsetting weaker domestic feed demand. Analysts say competitively priced U.S. corn remains attractive to global buyers, but this support depends on maintaining price competitiveness rather than on structural growth in consumption.

Experts emphasize that the combination of record U.S. production and slower growth in global feed demand has pushed the corn market back into oversupply. As a result, global prices are likely to remain vulnerable to stock increases even amid solid export activity.

Tags: corn, prices, USA