Record Grain Harvest Forecast for China

Grain production in China for the MY 2025/26 is forecast to rise by 8 million tonnes compared to the previous year, reaching a record 715 million tonnes. At the same time, expanding domestic demand is expected to drive additional imports of staple grains such as corn, wheat, and rice, according to the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

China’s grain and feed sector is navigating record supplies, but quality concerns from the 2025 harvest remain, the FAS noted in its January 27 update. Beijing continues to focus on grain self-sufficiency and price stability, with higher yields playing a key role in achieving these goals for the country of 1.4 billion people.

Within total grain output, corn is projected at 301.2 million tonnes, wheat at 140.1 million tonnes, and milled rice at 146.3 million tonnes. Feed and residual use is expected to reach 289.5 million tonnes, up 6.5 million tonnes from the previous year.

Low corn prices are driving growth by encouraging higher inclusion rates in animal feed, which is forecast to reach 240 million tonnes, up 5 million from the prior period. Despite reported toxins in roughly 30 million tonnes of new-crop corn, buyers are substituting wheat, sorghum, and barley in feed rations, the FAS said.

Corn imports are forecast at 8 million tonnes due to stronger demand for high-quality grain and reduced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. The resumption of Ukrainian corn shipments is also supporting this trend. Wheat imports are expected to reach 6 million tonnes, up from 4.1 million in MY 2024/25, though still well below the record 13.6 million tonnes imported in MY 2023/24.

Tags: China, grain, crop forecast