Recent barley procurement tenders indicate that world prices for feed crops will continue to decline

According to market operators, the Jordanian state agency MIT purchased about 50 thousand tons of feed barley (presumably of European origin) from Ameropa in an international tender on May 28, out of the planned 120 thousand tons, with delivery on September 1-15, 2025, at a price of $229.5/ton C&F.

It is worth noting that the prices of the tender offers were significantly higher. Thus, Dreyfus offered barley at $233/t, Al Dahra at $235/t, Olam at $232.4/t, Viterra at $239.9/t, CHS at $235.8/t and Farm Sense at $234.6/t. However, the buyer managed to lower the price, and the purchase of a much smaller volume than planned indicates an expectation of a further decrease in barley prices.

This purchase price is equivalent to the price of Ukrainian barley at the level of $185-190/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, which corresponds to the level of forward prices for the new harvest declared by traders. It is also worth noting that at the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, the demand prices for Ukrainian barley in ports were $160-170/t, and the world balances for feed grains, including barley, were worse than forecast for the 2025/26 MY.

According to the USDA forecast, global feed grain production in 2025/26 MY will grow to a record 1,549 million tons (1,502 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 1,507 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

Feed grain prices remain under pressure from the results of recent tenders in South Korea, where in the first half of May local importers purchased about 263 thousand tons of corn from the USA with a balance in July-August at a price of $248.5/ton C&F. This price level is equivalent to the price of Ukrainian corn at $195-200/ton with delivery to Black Sea ports, although current market prices are $225-230/ton C&F.

In the event of favorable weather conditions and the expected harvest, prices will remain under pressure from increased supply, so markets continue to monitor weather forecasts, and prices in the coming months will depend on weather factors.

Tags: tender, barley, prices, Jordan