Rapeseed. The best strategy for Ukrainian farmers and crushers?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Ukraine almost completed rapeseed harvest.

UkrAgroConsult forecast of rapeseed 2024 harvest is based on our own estimate of rapeseed area (only 6.3% less y/y) and yield (-9.6% y/y). The 2024 rapeseed harvest is estimated by UkrAgroConsult (-21% y/y).

Exports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil and meal

In 2024/25 MY much more forward contracts were made compared with 2023. This is a positive trend for farmers and a sign of importers’ confidence in Ukraine as a reliable rapeseed supplier. Negative forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU also encouraged forward contracts making.

2024/25 MY started with high rapeseed exports due to early harvest:

• Almost 278 K mt were exported in July (+15% y/y, the highest level in the last five years);
• As of August 21, rapeseed exports amounted to 629 K mt (+34% yoy, total August exports estomates at more than 700 K mt).

July exports of rapeseed oil (-55% y/y) and rapeseed meal (-40%).

Price behavior. Domestic prices were driven in July-August by exporters’ demand and farmers’ reluctance to sell in anticipation of price increases. The farmers’ tactic worked, but only for a short time.  Obligations under export contracts made prices rise. However, the trend changed after the price drop in the EU.

Further development of the oilseed and vegoil sector in the Black Sea and Danube region will be discussed at the 10^th International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on October 15^th in Bucharest.

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Tags: Ukraine, export, prices, rapeseed, crop forecast, rapeseed meal