Rapeseed quotes in Paris remain under pressure, while Ukraine expects high prices in the new season

Rapeseed prices in Paris remain under pressure due to rising imports and forecasts of increased EU production in the 2025/26 season. Additionally, the market is under pressure from an increasing supply of rapeseed from the old harvest.

August rapeseed futures have fallen by 1.5% over the past month to €469/t (approximately $531/t). This decline is due not only to the expected 8% increase in the EU rapeseed harvest, but also to the fall in world prices for oil and biodiesel. Favorable weather conditions in the EU countries are improving the condition of crops, which leads to a decrease in prices for new crop rapeseed by €35–64/t compared to the old one.

Rapeseed imports to the EU from the start of the season to May 4 reached 5.68 million tonnes, which is 14% higher than last year. In particular:

• from Ukraine — 2.36 million tons (41.5%) compared to 3 million tons last year,
• from Australia — 2.346 million tons (41.3%) versus 1.36 million tons,
• from Canada — 621 thousand tons (10.9%) versus 103 thousand tons.

Canola imports from Australia and Canada grew particularly rapidly in the second half of the season, amid rising prices in the EU. In March 2025, Australia exported a record 907,000 tonnes of canola, of which 719,000 tonnes were to the EU (compared to 250,000 tonnes last year). In total, Australia exported 3.7 million tonnes between October 2024 and March 2025, which is higher than the previous season (3.22 million tonnes).

In Ukraine, the prospects for the new season’s rapeseed harvest have worsened due to dry weather and frosts in March-April. This may support high prices: traders are currently offering forward contracts at $500-505/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, although this season prices reached $560-565/t.

In March, canola prices in Canada fell sharply after China and the US announced tariffs. This led to a surge in canola exports — both to the EU and China — and a rapid increase in prices. According to Statistics Canada, China imported 471,000 tonnes of canola in March alone, and 1.026 million tonnes in the first quarter. From August to March, Canadian shipments reached 3.713 million tonnes (474,000 tonnes to the EU).

In its April report, the USDA raised its forecast for canola imports to China in the 2024/25 season by 1 million tons to 4 million tons (down from last year’s 5.486 million tons), but the estimate may be revised upward again by the end of the season.

July canola futures rose 7.8% to CAD 703.9/t ($508.7/t) in the month, after falling to CAD 565/t in early March. This is the highest level since the beginning of the season, which encourages farmers to increase sowing areas.

November canola futures rose 5% to CAD 662/t on an expected drawdown in canola stocks in Canada.

The 3% strengthening of the Canadian dollar over the past month has reduced the difference between July canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures to just $22/t, while in March it reached $120–140/t.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola exports from Canada since the start of the season have reached 7.694 million tonnes (versus 4.546 million tonnes last year), while domestic consumption has reached a record 8.693 million tonnes (versus 8.116 million tonnes in 2024). The forecast for total exports is 8.3 million tonnes.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed