Rapeseed prices rise due to oil factor and risks of protracted conflict

The US-Israeli war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remain the main factors influencing oil markets. The US stock market is showing high volatility amid statements from various parties regarding negotiations and an end to the conflict.

May Brent crude futures remained stable on Monday, but rose another 4.8% yesterday to $118.3/barrel (+66% since the start of the war) amid mutually exclusive statements about negotiations.

Initially, Iranian President Pazeshkian said that Iran was ready to end the war if the strikes stopped and security guarantees were provided, but later Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that “Iran does not believe that negotiations with the US will have any results. The level of trust is at zero.”

Against the backdrop of such statements, June Brent crude futures fell 3.4% yesterday to $104/barrel, and US stock indexes rose 2.5-3.8%, adding about $2 trillion to the market’s capitalization, which may have some inside information about the war’s imminent end.

Rising oil prices are gradually leading to higher prices for rapeseed, which is used to produce biodiesel, as markets expect oil prices to fall in the near term. But in recent days, the feeling that the war will drag on for a long time has increased, which has accordingly affected rapeseed quotes.

May rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange rose by 3.3% to €514.25/t (+5.6% since the start of the war) or $594.6/t in a week. At the same time, August futures for the new crop are trading €6/t cheaper (at €508/t), which indicates the speculative nature of the price increase.

In the MY 2025/26 (as of March 22), the EU reduced rapeseed imports by 33% compared to the previous season to 3.3 million tons due to large stocks and rising prices in Australia and Canada.

Rising fuel prices reduce fuel consumption, so the proportion of biofuels needed for blending also decreases.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange have been trading at around CAD 730/t (+5.8% since the start of the war) or $525/t for three weeks, and the $70/t difference with the price in Paris makes deliveries to the EU unprofitable.

In Ukraine, export demand for rapeseed remains stable, and traders have raised prices by $5/t to $565-570/t or UAH 25,500-26,000/t delivered to Black Sea ports. However, processors are keeping prices within UAH 24,000-24,500/t delivered to the plant, as rapeseed is processed by a small number of plants.

Tags: prices, rapeseed