Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from low demand from the EU

The rather high rapeseed harvest in the EU this season (estimated at 19-20 million tonnes) continues to put pressure on import demand, which has fallen sharply in the first 4 months of the 2025/26 season, while favorable sowing conditions have allowed for an increase in the area under winter rapeseed, which increases production forecasts for the next season.

According to the European Commission, the European Union has sharply reduced imports of rapeseed and canola this season, which fell by 47% to 1.26 million tons in 4 months compared to the same period in 2024/25 MY, mainly due to a sharp decrease in oilseed supplies from Ukraine and Australia, which was offset by an increase in supplies from Moldova. An increase in supplies of cheap canola from Canada, which has already been contracted and will begin to arrive in December-January, as well as offers from Australia, is also expected.

Recall that according to the ABARES forecast, rapeseed production in Australia will grow to 6.4 million tons (6.1 million tons last season), which will significantly exceed the 10-year average of 4.8 million tons.

According to MARS Crop Monitor, in the main rapeseed producing countries – Germany, France, Poland, Romania and the Baltic States – rapeseed sowing was carried out on schedule and under favorable conditions, so the final sowing areas are expected to exceed the forecast. The crops are well developed and are now entering the winter dormancy period.

Under the pressure of these factors, November rapeseed quotes in Paris have been trading at €478.5/t or $554.5/t (+1.5% per month) for the past two weeks, and now, as world vegetable oil prices have moved downward under the pressure of increasing supply, they have come under additional pressure.

Rapeseed oil prices in the EU have decreased by $20-30/t to $1,270-1,280/t FOB Netherlands in two weeks amid falling oil prices under pressure from lower prices for Russian Urals oil due to sanctions pressure.

In Ukraine, the pace of rapeseed export sales remains low due to the complex mechanism of export clearance without payment of duties by producers, so traders increased export prices by 200-400 UAH/t to 23,500-24,400 UAH/t or $545-555/t with delivery to Black Sea ports in a week.

The increase in the cost of delivery to the port also limits the supply of rapeseed to the ports, so traders will most likely refuse to plan new vessels for the coming months, unable to form export consignments of rapeseed.

Processors are also reducing demand for rapeseed, as they have switched to purchasing sunflower seeds, so only a few companies are buying rapeseed at a price of 23,000-24,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, depending on the oil content.

Winter rapeseed has been sown on 1.08 million hectares in Ukraine, which is lower than the plan and last year’s figure due to dry conditions in August and September, so farmers will hold back on rapeseed sales until spring, expecting overwintering of crops and a possible increase in prices.

November Canadian canola futures rose 3% in two weeks to CAD 647/t or $462/t, supported by rising U.S. soybean quotes, but the market remains awaiting Canadian canola harvest data due in late November, and StatCan is likely to raise its official Canadian production forecast, which will again put pressure on quotes in December and January.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed