Rapeseed prices in Ukraine fall as traders complete export programs

From July 1 to December 31, 2024, Ukraine exported almost 2.8 million tons of rapeseed, which is 4% more than the corresponding figure of the previous season. Against the background of decreasing stocks, traders who bought rapeseed in Black Sea ports completed export programs in January, as a result of which demand prices fell from 25,500-26,000 UAH/t to 23,500-24,000 UAH/t.

The fall in rapeseed prices in Paris and the euro exchange rate against the dollar, as well as the introduction in the US (and its postponement for a month) of tariffs on goods from Canada, are increasing pressure on rapeseed prices.

March canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 0.3% on Friday and rose 0.3% on Monday to 640 CAD/t or 442 $/t (+1.4% for the week), barely reacting to the imposition and postponement of the tariffs, although the market expected a significant decline in prices.

May rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange fell slightly on Friday, but rose by €3.5/t on Monday to €519/t or $534.4/t (+0.4% for the week).

Canada is increasing its exports of cheap canola to the EU, so the imposition of duties by the US will help boost supplies.

According to the German Association for the Promotion of Grain and Oilseed Crops (UFOP), in the MY 2024/25 (as of January 19) EU countries increased rapeseed imports by 5% compared to the previous season to 3.4 million tons, of which 63% or 2.2 million tons were supplied from Ukraine (compared to 2.1 million tons in the MY 2023/24), 26% or 875 thousand tons from Australia (19% more than in the same period in the 2023/24 MY) and 144 thousand tons from Canada (three times more than in the MY 2023/24).

In the second half of the season, the EU will increase imports of canola from Australia, while demand for Canadian canola, which contains GMOs and is therefore mainly used for biofuel production, will be somewhat lower, reports Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH).

In addition, the pressure on rapeseed prices will increase the increase in production forecasts. Against the backdrop of favorable weather and an increase in sowing areas, Strategie Grains experts have increased the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in MY 2025/26 from 18.74 to 19 million tons compared to previous estimates, which will exceed the figure for MY 2024/25 by 13%.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed