Rapeseed prices in Paris fall despite lower EU harvest forecasts

November rapeseed futures in Paris fell 2.2% to €475/t or $550/t in the week (-1.6% month-on-month) amid falling oil prices and increased supply of the new crop. Prices have yet to react to another downgrade in the EU harvest forecast and a delay in harvesting caused by rainfall.

The European Commission has cut its EU rapeseed harvest forecast by 385,000 tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes from its previous estimate, which is 1.9 million tonnes higher than in 2024, when adverse weather conditions sharply reduced yields. This year’s harvest will exceed the 5-year average (17.8 million tonnes), but will be less than the 25 million tonnes needed for processing. It is worth noting that the European Commission forecast is inferior to the IGC (18.8 million tonnes) and USDA (19.5 million tonnes) estimates.

The increase in the harvest compared to last year is due primarily to the increase in production in France, the main European rapeseed producer. The European Commission, together with the French agricultural statistics agency Agreste, estimates the harvest at 4.2 million tonnes, which is slightly inferior to the June forecast, but will exceed last year’s 3.9 million tonnes. The heat and lack of precipitation in June, especially in central-western France, did not significantly affect the harvest of winter crops, which were already completing their ripening. However, dry weather allowed the harvest to start earlier.

For Romania, the European Commission has lowered the rapeseed harvest forecast to 1.8 million tonnes, which will exceed the 2024 figure by 682 thousand tonnes. For Germany, the production forecast remains at 3.9 million tonnes (compared to 3.6 million tonnes last year), while the German Raiffeisen association expects a harvest of 17,000 tonnes less.

At present, prolonged rainfall is delaying the harvest in Germany, and rainy weather with short harvest intervals is also forecast for the coming days. But despite the difficult conditions, there are already positive data on yields and oil content.

Tags: Romania, EU, prices, France, rapeseed, Germany, crop forecast