Rapeseed prices are rising rapidly following crude oil and vegetable oil futures
Increased demand for vegetable oils and rising crude oil prices due to political uncertainty led to higher prices for rapeseed and canola.
Despite the victory of Trump in the elections and the increase in crude oil reserves in the United States, January futures for Brent crude oil for the week rose by 3.7% to 75.5 $/barrel.
February futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF for two sessions rose by 3.2% to a 3-year high of 532,75 €/t or 575 $/t (+1.9% for the week, +7% for the month) amid limited supply and rising prices for rapeseed oil.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg stock exchange for two sessions rose by 4.5% to 645 CAD/t or 465 $/t (+4.6% for the month) following the rise in prices for vegetable oils, especially soybean oil in the United States.
December futures for palm oil on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia for the week rose another 5.5% to 4952 ringgit/t or 1134 $/t on the data on the reduction of reserves.
December futures for soybean oil on the Chicago stock exchange for the week rose by 7.3% to 1065 $/t (+12.3% for the month) due to increased demand for the cheapest oil on the market.
According to the European Commission, in MY 2024/25 (as of November 3), the EU increased imports of rapeseed compared to the same period last season by 8% to 1.92 million tons, of which 1.37 million tons were supplied from Ukraine, 414 thousand tons – from Australia, 66 thousand tons – from Moldova, and the first this season 19.8 thousand tons – from Canada.
The prices for canola in Canada are 100-110 USD/t lower than for rapeseed in Europe, so soon the volumes of supplies from Canada to the EU will increase. According to the research of Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, in MY 2024/25 Canada will increase the exports of canola by 30% to 8.7 mln tonnes compared to the previous season due to the increase in supplies to the EU.
Ukraine exported 2.3 mln tonnes of rapeseed in MY 2024/25, including 475 thsd tons in October, so amid the decline in export stocks, traders are stepping up purchases and raising prices.
During the week, the export purchase price of rapeseed increased by 300-400 UAH/t to 25000-25200 UAH/t or 525-535 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, but the number of proposals remains low.
Increase in rapeseed production in Russia by 15% to 4.8 million tons will also increase the supply of rapeseed oil and meal on the world market, but they will not get to the EU due to the introduction of import duties.
In today’s report, the USDA experts may adjust the forecasts of soybean crop in the United States and canola in Australia, which will affect world prices.
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