Rapeseed price growth limited by low demand in the EU and increased supply from Australia

A 21% increase in oil prices in a month due to the war with Iran is supporting rapeseed and canola quotes, but falling demand from the EU and increasing supply from Australia are holding back prices, including in Ukraine.

Recall that the forecast for the rapeseed harvest in Australia has been raised again from 7.2 to 7.7 million tons (USDA estimated it at 6.7 million tons in November), which will exceed the MY 2024/25 figure by 26% (6.1 million tons), so a buyer will need to be found for an additional 1.6 million tons.

May oil futures have risen 15% since the beginning of the week to a 20-month high of $81.5/barrel (+21% for the month), leading to a sharp increase in fuel prices in the EU and Ukraine, which should normally boost demand for biofuels.

But now market participants hope that the speculative rise in oil prices will end quickly, so they are in no hurry to buy biofuel oil at very high prices.

On the Paris stock exchange, May rapeseed futures rose by 2.5% on Monday and Tuesday, but fell by 0.7% yesterday amid profit-taking to €495.5/t (+2.6% for the month), although the dollar price rose only to $575/t due to the decline in the euro.

At the same time, August futures for the new harvest are trading €18/t cheaper, at €477.5/t, which indicates the speculative nature of the price increase.

Rapeseed imports to the EU from July 1, 2025 to March 3, 2026 amounted to only 2.87 million tons, which is 37% lower than last year’s pace, so in the next four months it is unlikely to reach the 5.5 million tons projected for the MY 2025/26, so final imports will be significantly less than the record 7.5 million tons of the MY 2024/25.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 3% in three days to 709 CAD/t (+5.2% for the month), but due to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the price in US dollars rose to 520 $/t (+10% for the month), which reduced the difference with the price in Paris to 55 $/t and made deliveries to the EU unprofitable.

China’s tariff reduction on Canadian canola from March 1 continues to support quotes, but there has been no sign of increased supply as Australia ramps up canola exports to China after a ban in 2020. The Australian government confirmed that the first trial shipment of canola passed Chinese customs in late January, and a second trial shipment of canola arrived in China shortly after the first.

Prices for Australian non-GM rapeseed are currently 730-760 AUD/t or 514-535 $/t FOB, which, given the cheap freight, makes it much more attractive compared to Canadian canola.

In Ukraine, export demand for rapeseed remains stable, and traders have increased prices by $5/t to $555-565/t or UAH 25,000-25,200/t delivered to Black Sea ports. However, processors are keeping prices in the range of UAH 24,000-24,500/t delivered to the plant, against the backdrop of stable rapeseed oil prices at €1,050-1,070/t delivered to the EU.

In February 2026, Ukraine exported about 76 thousand tons of rapeseed (compared to 130 thousand tons in January), and in total since the beginning of the season, exports amounted to almost 1 million tons. Rapeseed oil exports in January amounted to 50 thousand tons, and in February – 44 thousand tons, so it can be expected that processors will reach the projected rapeseed processing volumes of 1.5-1.7 million tons.

The seasonal increase in rapeseed sales by farmers in the EU, who expected prices at the level of €500/t, will reduce demand for expensive rapeseed from Australia and Ukraine, especially against the background of a fairly good condition of winter rapeseed crops in the EU and an increase in sowing areas.

Tags: prices, rapeseed