Rapeseed meal stocks in oil mills in China are at a historic low

Recently, the rapeseed meal market has been experiencing a “pre-holiday weakening and short-term pressure” trend. The average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/tonne on January 30, and 2,570 yuan/tonne on February 4, a decrease of 1.15%.

Supply. Rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are at historically low levels, with some regions experiencing spot market shortages. However, supply is expected to increase due to improved canola trade between China and Canada, imports of Australian canola through customs, expanding canola import channels, and increasing medium-term supply pressure.

Demand. Aquaculture is in its winter off-season, and pre-holiday stocks are virtually depleted. Purchasing activity in the market is generally flat, with a lack of demand for spot commodities.

In the short term, rapeseed meal prices will remain volatile. The timing of rapeseed arrivals at ports and its relationship with soybean meal should be monitored. In the medium term, as rapeseed arrivals increase, expectations of oversupply are growing, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Focus should be on data on rapeseed arrivals in March and April and the recovery in demand for seafood.

Tags: China, rapeseed oil