Rapeseed meal prices in China strengthened by the end of January

In January 2026, the Chinese domestic rapeseed meal market experienced a downward fluctuation followed by a recovery at a low level. The average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,471 yuan/tonne on January 1, and 2,630 yuan/tonne on January 29, representing a 6.41% increase year-on-year.

On the supply side: short-term shortage, long-term supply constraint. In January, oil mill utilization remained low, and rapeseed processing volumes were insufficient, supporting prices due to a supply shortage in the spot market. Easing trade relations between China and Canada led to increased rapeseed import volumes over the long term, suppressing the potential for rapeseed meal price growth.

On the demand side: the off-season continues, and inventories are insufficient. Aquaculture is in the off-season, winter, and feed mills are primarily consuming stocks; as the Spring Festival approaches, factories operating in related industries are gradually closing.

The main tension in the January rapeseed meal situation lies in the tradeoff between “long-term supply pressure caused by the easing of Sino-Canadian trade” and “short-term support provided by low domestic inventories.” Demand is unlikely to increase during the off-season, and short-term fluctuations will generally remain within a certain range.

From January to December 2025, domestic feed production totaled 339.083 million tonnes, up 6.0% year-on-year.

The 6.0% annual increase in feed production indicates strong demand. Since soybean meal is the primary feed raw material, spot prices will rise due to demand.

Regarding futures, the main soybean meal contract 2605 closed at 2,766 yuan/tonne, and expectations of rising demand could improve market sentiment and push futures prices higher, which would have a significant overall bullish effect.

The soybean meal market improved in January, mainly due to upward fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,126 yuan/tonne. On January 29, the average market price of soybean meal fell to 3,186 yuan/tonne, up 1.92% from the previous month.

After the New Year, the utilisation of some soybean oil plants decreased, and animal feed producers gradually began to build up inventories, leading to a reduction in soybean meal inventories. A temporary supply shortage is observed, and the soybean meal market is strengthening. Due to high soybean yields in the global export market, futures market growth is limited, and soybean meal market growth is also modest. The market has remained largely unchanged, with the overall price rising by approximately 50 yuan per ton, representing a nearly 2% increase.

A soybean meal market analyst at SunSirs believes that as the Spring Festival approaches in February and soybean oil mills undergo maintenance shutdowns, the soybean meal shortage will persist, fueled by positive factors. There is still potential for future growth in the soybean meal market.

The 6.0% increase in feed demand directly impacts the spot price of rapeseed meal, as rapeseed meal is a key component of feed, and increased demand will push the spot market higher. In futures, the main rapeseed meal contract, 2605, closed at 2271 yuan/tonne, and the demand support may strengthen the steady upward trend of futures prices, showing a positive and favorable market trend.

Tags: China, rapeseed meal