Rapeseed futures in Paris rose to the highest level since the end of 2022

The speculative demand for rapeseed in the EU is supported by restrained sales by local farmers, reduced supply of Ukrainian rapeseed and slow canola shipments from Canada and Australia. However, the situation may change soon, as canola prices in Canada remain under pressure from falling soybean oil prices in the US and the new US Administration’s intention to impose duties on Canadian goods.

Amid uncertainty in the market, the February futures for rapeseed in Paris during November 18-27 fell by 10% from a record for this season level of 543 €/t to 493 €/t, but in December resumed growth and on Friday reached a new record 547 €/t or 575,3 $/t (+2.2% per month, +22.3% for the year), which was the highest value since November 1, 2022.

At the same time, the May futures for rapeseed declined from the record 535.5 €/t reached on November 18 and are trading at 530.5 €/t (+0.2% per month, +19.4% for the year), and August futures for new crop rapeseed are trading at 481.25 €/t on forecasts of an increase in global sowing areas in 2025.

January futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange in early November also reached a record 665 CAD/t, but at the end of the month fell to 565 CAD/t, and in December on forecasts of a sharp decline in canola production in Canada rose to only 617 CAD/t or $434/t (-4.9% for the month).

Statistics Canada in its December report lowered the forecast of canola crop in 2024/25 MY from 19.2 to 17.8 mln tonnes, but a few days later USDA experts lowered their estimate to 18.8 mln tonnes, which increased the uncertainty in the market.

In Ukraine, the purchase price of rapeseed for delivery to the Black Sea ports after a sharp drop rose to 530-535 $/t or 24500-25000 UAH/t, and traders are competing for the available market balances. Following them, the purchase price of sunflower with an oil content of 50% during the week increased by 200-300 UAH/t to 25800-26200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, especially against the background of restraining sales by producers in anticipation of rising prices.

During the season, the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar fell by 5.2% to the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic Covid-19 level of 1,423 CAD/$, which improves the prospects for the supply of canola to the EU from Canada, the January futures which is already 140 $/t cheaper than the February futures for canola in Paris.

a Significant soybean crop in South America, which will begin to be harvested in late January, will increase pressure on prices of soybeans and oil, and after the inauguration of trump on January 25, the volatility of the markets will increase significantly, which confirms the speculative reaction of the markets to his tweets during the previous cadence.

Tags: prices, rapeseed