Rapeseed and canola prices remain under pressure from crop growth forecasts in Canada and Europe

Rapeseed and canola prices remain under pressure from forecasts of an increase in production in MY 2025/26 compared to the current season in the EU countries by 2.29 to 19.15 million tons and in Canada by 1.5 to 19.5 million tons. But given the weather conditions in these countries, futures for the new crop are trading 1.4-2.4% more expensive than last year, and price volatility remains high.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange fell 0.2% to €488.5/t or $553.4/t (+3.5% month-on-month, +1.4% year-on-year) over the week, although they fell 1.3% at the beginning of the week and then rose 1.1% against the backdrop of dry weather in Germany in May.

According to OilWorld experts, the area sown with rapeseed in the EU for the 2025 harvest has increased by 0.4 to 6 million hectares, so production will increase by 2.5 to 19.4 million tons, but will still be inferior to the record harvest of 2023 (20.2 million tons).

Romania will increase its rapeseed production the most – from last year’s 450,000 tons to 750,000 tons, although the new crop was previously estimated at 600,000 tons, as adverse weather could reduce yields. In addition, Bulgaria (by 51%), Sweden (24%), the Czech Republic (23%) and the Baltic countries (19%) will increase production, while in France it will decrease by 2%.

High volumes of rapeseed processing in the EU in January-March 2025 significantly reduced its stocks, which at the end of June will amount to 0.9 million tons compared to 1.53 million tons last year.

In Canada, rain and cold weather delayed canola planting in early May, but improving weather will allow for faster planting and crop development.

July canola futures fell 5% at the beginning of the week and then rose 3.3% to 718 CAD/t or $517/t (+8% for the month), while November new crop futures rose 5.7% to 681 CAD/t (+2.4% for the year) for the month.

In Ukraine, rains are improving the condition of rapeseed crops, but some of them have been destroyed by frost, reducing the potential yield. Based on forecasts of a reduced harvest, traders have activated forward purchases and are offering $515-525/t for deliveries to Black Sea ports in July. But due to uncertainty about the harvest, farmers are in no hurry to sign contracts, expecting further price increases.

If weather conditions in Canada, the USA and the EU remain favorable in the first half of June, then rapeseed prices will decrease in line with the long-term dynamics of June, especially in the event of an increase in canola areas in Canada, sunflower in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia and soybeans in the USA.

Tags: prices, rapeseed