Rains in Brazil stopped the growth of soybean prices on world markets and in Ukraine

Recently, Brazil experienced scattered precipitation that did not reach the central regions of the country. This week, a new front may bring the first rains and a slight decrease in temperature to the state of Mato Grosso.

According to AgRural agency, as of September 26, soybeans were planted on 2% of the planned areas in Brazil (5% last year). In the main producing state of Paraná, due to the rains in the second half of September, 13% of the area was planted with soybeans.

The late start of the rainy season will not only delay soybean planting, but will also significantly affect future plantings of second crop corn and cotton in early 2025.

November futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange yesterday decreased by 0.7% to 388 $/t (+1.2% for the week, +4.3% for the month) amid accelerated planting in Brazil and harvesting in the United States.

As of September 29, soybeans in the United States threshed on 26% of the area (18% on average for 5 years), and dry and warm weather will accelerate the harvest.

According to the quarterly report of the NASS, soybean stocks in the United States as of September 1 amounted to 9.3 million tons, which is lower than analysts’ forecast, but 2.87 million tons higher than the corresponding figure last year.

In Ukraine, as of September 26, 3.5 million tons of soybeans were harvested from 1.646 million hectares or 62% (of 2.6 million hectares) with a yield of 2.13 t/ha, which allows to expect a harvest of 6 million tons.

During the week, export purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs increased by 100-300 UAH/t to 18200-18400 UAH/t or 385-390 USD/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports, while the processing companies offer 17000-17500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans for the week increased by 10-15 $/t to 455-465 $/t or 21800-22000 UAH/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, while processing increased prices by 300-500 UAH/t to 21300-22000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Precipitation in Brazil in the near future will stabilize stock prices for soybeans, which will significantly affect the purchase price in Ukraine.

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Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, prices, soybean