Rain forecasts in Ivory Coast put pressure on cocoa prices

Cocoa prices in New York rose 0.8% to $8,343 a tonne.

Dealers said dry weather in West Africa had raised concerns about the outlook for the 2025/26 main crop.

London cocoa rose 0.5% to £5,578 a tonne.

Ivory Coast cocoa processing fell 31.2% year-on-year in July to 39,301 tonnes, according to data from exporters association GEPEX published on Monday. Cocoa producers cited poor bean quality and a low crop in the middle belt.

Weak demand for chocolate is also weighing on cocoa prices. Chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG in July cut its full-year margin forecast after a sharper-than-expected decline in chocolate sales in the first half of the year. Chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG also cut its sales forecast for the second time in three months in July, citing high cocoa storage prices. The company is forecasting a decline in sales for the full year and reported a 9.5% drop in sales for the March-May period, the biggest quarterly decline in a decade.

A coalition of Ghanaian cocoa farmers has threatened to bar officials from the national regulator from entering their farms in protest at a recently announced producer price for the upcoming season, which they say could lead to illegal smuggling into Ivory Coast and Togo.

More than 300,000 farmers have expressed outrage over what they consider insufficient compensation, with some saying they would smuggle their entire crop to Ivory Coast if they lived near the border, where prices are considered more favorable.

On August 4, Ghana announced a fixed producer price of 51,660 cedis ($4,783) per tonne for the 2025/2026 season, or 3,228 cedis per 64kg bag, a 4% increase from the previous season.

Theophilus Tamakloe, vice-president of the Ghana Cocoa Farmers and Suppliers Cooperatives Association, said the price fell short of the government’s promise to pay 70% of the free-on-board price used in international trade, which was expected to fetch around 3,800 cedis per bag.

Kwame Alex, who was named the best cocoa farmer at a recent national award, said the price difference between Ghanaian and Ivorian cocoa is about 700 cedis. “(This) creates incentives for smuggling,” said Alex, who is not part of the coalition.

“If I live near the Ivory Coast border, all my cocoa beans will probably go to Ivory Coast because the government has been unfair to us,” said Tamakle.

The farmers’ threat to bar staff from Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, is an escalation that could disrupt agricultural extension services in all cocoa-growing regions.

Extension staff regularly visit farms to inspect crops and educate farmers.

The standoff highlights the discontent in Ghana’s cocoa sector, where smuggling is already a serious problem. According to COCOBOD, the country lost about 160,000 tonnes of cocoa to illegal cross-border trade in the 2023/24 season.

Kwame Alex said pricing was particularly inadequate given the rising costs of production, including insecticides, which are now sold at 150 cedis apiece, and equipment rental fees, which are as high as 100 cedis a day.

($1 = 10.8 Ghanaian cedis)

Tags: prices, Ivory Coast, cocoa