Rabobank raised its forecast for wheat production and lowered its estimate of the canola crop in Australia

According to Rabobank forecast, despite the unfavorable weather conditions in some major grain growing regions, the winter crops harvest in Australia in 2024/25 MY will increase by 1% or 0.5 mln tonnes to 47.1 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, which is 13% below the 5-year average.

Thus, in comparison with the previous season, in MY 2024 the harvest will change:

• wheat – will increase by 6% or 1.6 mln tonnes to 27.6 mln tonnes (8% less than the 5-year average),
• barley – will decrease by 5% or 0.5 mln tons to 10.4 mln tons (21% less than the average for 5 years),
• canola – will decrease by 21% or 1.2 million tons to 4.7 million tons (17% less than the 5-year average).

The reason for the decline in canola production will be not only a reduction in sowing areas, but also unfavorable weather conditions. The official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 5 million tons.

According to experts, the prices for Australian premium white wheat in ports will be 320-360 AUD/t (211-238 USD/t) at the end of 2024 and in the first half of 2025. Prices for feed barley in ports will be 290-320 AUD/t (191-211 USD/t), and the discount for malting barley will be minimal, if any, compared to wheat prices. Prices for non-GMO canola in the first half of 2025 will be 730-780 AUD/t (482-515 $/t), and prices for canola with GMOs will be 8-12% lower.

Yesterday, the price of canola and rapeseed rose sharply amid lower production forecasts in Australia.

November futures for rapeseed on the MATIF exchange in Paris on Monday rose by 2.1% to 511.5 €/t or 552 $/t (+3.9% for the week, +7.6% for the month), and November futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange – by 2.8% to 633 CAD/t or 458 $/t (+5.9% for the week, +7.6% for the month).

Analysts believe that the stable demand for vegetable oils will support canola prices, while the EU after the introduction of duties on imports of oilseeds from Russia and Belarus will be forced to buy these crops within the Union or in other exporting countries.

Tags: Australia, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast