Quota for grain exports from Russia in 2025 may reach 10-12 mln tons

Grain market experts made the first estimates of the grain export quota that will be in effect in Russia from February 15 to June 30, 2025. Depending on the pace of exports in the coming months, the most likely forecast is 10-12 million tons, with a range of estimates from 5 million to 17 million tons.

“Most likely, the quota volume could be 11-12 million tons, but everything will depend on the export rates in November-January,” market expert Alexander Korbut told Interfax.

According to him, the pace of exports is slowing down. “From November 1-12, about 1.5 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were shipped, including 1.4 million tons of wheat. This allows us to forecast November exports of no more than 5.2 million tons. In October, it amounted to 6.2 million tons. And if wheat shipments increased in November, then barley and corn – sharply decreased and amounted to 69.7 thousand and 29.9 thousand tons, respectively,” he said.

Korbut believes that “we should not expect export records in December-January either.”

His forecast for exports for the current agricultural season (July 2024-June 2025) is 55-58 million tons, including 48-49 million tons of wheat. “Now it is necessary to put a rather wide ‘fork’ in the estimates, because much will depend on the world market conditions,” the expert said.

“If exports are active, the quota could be in the region of 5-6 million tons. But high rates are doubtful, so as the most realistic option we can talk about 10 million tons,” said Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of ProZerno.

Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (IKAR), tentatively estimates the size of the quota at 11.5-12 million tons. “The calculation is made based on export rates, crop estimates and domestic needs,” he said, recalling that IKAR forecasts this year’s grain harvest at 125 million tons (without new regions) and export potential at 50.5 million tons.

Pavel Konev, IT director of the export holding company “Sea Delivery”, said that grain exports from July 1 to November 3 amounted to 25.8 million tons, which corresponds to 46% of the export potential for the season and is very close to the figure for the same period last year – 26.4 million tons. Although this year’s crop estimate is lower than last year’s, he noted.

“If in the next 3.5 months exports decline to the level of 4 million tons per month, then by February 15, the export potential will be selected for 40 million tons, so 15-17 million tons may remain under the quota. If suddenly we continue to export 6 million tons per month, the quota may be 10 million tons,” he said.

russia started quotas for grain exports in 2020. Restrictions were imposed from April 1 to June 30 and amounted to 7 million tons. A new quota was in effect from February 15 to June 30, 2021, and its volume amounted to 17.5 million tons. At the end of 2021, the government decided that the quota would be annual with a validity period from February 15 to June 30.

In 2022, it was 11 million tons, including 8 million tons of wheat. In 2023, it will be 25.5 million tons, with no breakdown by grain type. The quota for 2024 was 28 million tons (first approved at 24 million tons, then it was decided to have an additional quota of 4 million tons), it also did not provide for species separation of grain.

As Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut reported in an interview with Vedomosti a week ago, last year’s quota was selected by 76%. In 2025, the share of those companies that did not fully utilize the quota will be proportionally reduced through a correction factor, she said.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the export potential for grain this season at 60 million tons. Last year Russia exported 72.2 million tons of grain, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.

The grain harvest for 2023 is 144.9 million tons (92.8 million tons of wheat). This year’s official forecast is 130 million tons (83 million tons of wheat).

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat