Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine remain stable, despite the increase in quotes in Chicago

The war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring by 50% in a month, which should have supported the prices of “energy” crops used to make biofuels. However, May corn futures in Chicago have risen only 5.3% to $184/t, in line with last year’s level.

The sharp increase in the cost of fuel at gas stations in the US has reduced its consumption, which in turn reduces the demand for ethanol, which is added to fuel at a rate of 15%.

According to the EIA, US ethanol inventories rose by 763,000 barrels to 27.17 million barrels during the week, while refineries are using about 889,000 barrels of ethanol per day.

Despite rising fuel prices, the EPA administration decided to continue its policy of lifting fuel restrictions for the summer period and announced the cancellation of mandatory sales of E15 starting May 1.

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine remain at $213-214/t or UAH 10,650-10,700/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but the number of offers from producers has increased.

In the MY 2025/26, Ukraine exported 13.5 million tons of corn, which is 23% lower than the pace of the previous season (16.6 million tons), although 1.94 million tons were exported in the 23 days of March, which is equal to the total exports of March 2025.

In Argentina, as of March 20, corn has been threshed on 13% of the area, and exports in April are forecast at 4 million tons, which will increase competition with American and Ukrainian corn.

Argentine corn for delivery in March-April is offered at $210-215/t FOB Up River, while American corn is offered at $220-225/t FOB, and Ukrainian corn is offered at $225-230/t FOB.

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that global corn production in 2026/27 MY will decline due to reduced plantings in the US and EU, driven by rising nitrogen fertilizer costs due to the Gulf blockade. Therefore, we expect further increases in world corn prices in the new season.

At the end of March, the USDA will publish revised forecasts for US planting areas, which will significantly affect corn quotes in Chicago and, accordingly, world prices next season.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices