Profitability of EU field crops to decline in 2026

According to a RaboResearch forecast, the profitability of arable land in the European Union will remain at the five-year average in 2025 but is expected to decline in 2026.

This year, higher crop yields have partially offset the drop in agricultural product prices, though the recovery has been minimal. Last year, RaboResearch already predicted a decline in profitability, and the situation has since worsened.

Favorable weather conditions in 2025 led to increased yields of key winter crops, particularly wheat and rapeseed, across most EU countries. This boosted grain profitability in France, Spain, and Romania. For instance, RaboResearch estimates France’s wheat harvest at 7.4 million tonnes, a 6.1% increase from last year, surpassing the long-term average of 6.9 million tonnes. The Netherlands also saw higher yields, especially for sugar beets. Meanwhile, Germany is expected to experience a slight decline in potato, beet, grain, and rapeseed harvests.

Grain prices in 2025 were lower than in 2024. Low prices for potatoes and sugar beets will particularly impact crop production profitability in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Poland. However, Romanian farmers are benefiting from high prices for sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, while onion prices are supporting agricultural profitability in the Netherlands and Spain.

For 2026, RaboResearch predicts a further decline in farming profitability due to persistently low agricultural product prices and rising fertilizer costs, which already increased by 15% in 2025.

Tags: margin, agricultural sector, EU