Prices for bread and flour rise in Central Asian countries, partly due to the war in Ukraine

In the first half of 2025, bread and flour prices have increased in Tajikistan and neighboring Central Asian countries. According to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, from January to June 2025, the price index for bread rose by 4.7%, and for flour by 4.9% compared to December 2024. The most significant price surge occurred in February and March, with monthly increases exceeding 1%, though inflation slowed in April-June. This was reported by Asia-Plus.

Experts attribute the price hikes in Tajikistan to the rising cost of imported wheat, increased expenses for energy and transportation, and changes in the weight and format of bread products, which have effectively led to hidden price increases. Despite some slowdown in inflation in recent months, Tajikistan remains heavily dependent on grain imports. Over the past 10 years, flour prices in the country have nearly doubled, from 150 somoni per sack in 2015 to an average of 300 somoni in 2025, driven by higher wheat costs, increased transportation expenses, trader actions, the war in Ukraine, and currency fluctuations.

The Tajikistan government forecasts an increase in grain crop production in the coming years. Wheat harvests are expected to reach 930,000 tons in 2026, rising to 986,000 tons by 2028. Flour production is also projected to grow, from 765,000 tons in 2026 to 907,000 tons in 2028. However, reliance on wheat imports will persist, with imports expected to rise from 1.156 million tons in 2026 to 1.308 million tons in 2028, and procurement costs increasing from $318 million to $367 million. In contrast, imports of ready-made flour are expected to decline, from 59,000 tons in 2026 to 51,000 tons in 2028, indicating a gradual shift toward domestic flour production.

In Uzbekistan, bread prices have risen sharply from 2020 to May 2025: bread made from first-grade flour increased by 78%, from premium flour by over 52%, and the popular “obinon” bread by 62%. Flour prices also surged, with first-grade flour up by 57% and premium flour by 73%. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan attributes this to rising energy costs (gasoline nearly doubled, gas tariffs rose by 129%, and water and sewage costs nearly tripled), increased transportation expenses (maintenance and repairs up by 115%), and environmental factors such as soil salinization, water shortages, and heat reducing crop yields. Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on grain imports (3.6 million tons in 2024, 99% from Kazakhstan) makes its market vulnerable to global price fluctuations.

In Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, price changes are also evident. In Kyrgyzstan, flour prices rose by 3.7%, with the average bread price at 60 soms (6.5 somoni). In Kazakhstan, first-grade flour became 4.9% cheaper, costing 222 tenge (3.85 somoni) per kg, while bread (400-450 g) rose by 4.1%, averaging 208 tenge (3.6 somoni). These trends reflect the complex economic challenges in the region, where import dependency and rising costs remain key issues.

Tags: prices, Tajikistan, Bread, flour, Uzbekistan