Precipitation in Argentina and Brazil improves soybean and corn crop prospects
Increase in rainfall in South America accelerates the sowing of soybeans and corn and improves the condition of crops, which increases the pressure on the quotes. Next week in the United States in the regions of cultivation of winter wheat will be rains, which will improve the condition of crops. At the same time, in Ukraine and in the South-West of Russia, drought reduces the forecasts of the future harvest.
In central Brazil, the rainy season continues, and the rains help to accelerate sowing and germination of soybeans, which will be sown in the optimal time, so the second crop corn planting will also be done on time. Heavy rains are expected across the country next week, which will improve the harvest prospects. Therefore, Rabobank experts raised the forecast of soybean production in 2024/25 MY to 167 mln tonnes (152 mln tonnes last year).
In Argentina, it has been raining for two weeks, which improves the condition of wheat crops and accelerates corn sowing, as well as replenishes soil moisture reserves ahead of soybean planting, which will begin in November. Rains are also expected to be favorable for sunflower and corn next week.
Record pace of harvesting soybeans and corn in the United States due to dry and warm weather, led to a sharp increase in supply and falling prices. In the Midwest and the Plains this week were rains, which will continue next week and will improve moisture reserves and the condition of winter crops.
This year’s weather is favorable for US farmers, but grain prices are very low. Thus, corn at the elevator farmers in the U.S. are now selling at 150-160 $/t, while in Ukraine – at 180 $/t.
The water level in the Mississippi, the main export route, remains low, slowing down shipments and putting pressure on US purchase prices. Increased rainfall intensity will raise water levels and accelerate the operation of river terminals.
Heavy rains in Spain led to flooding and loss of life, but significantly replenished moisture reserves and improved the prospects for the future winter crop.
Next week in the North-West of Europe is expected to be dry weather, which will accelerate the harvesting of corn in France, which is now threshed only 35% of the area compared to 60-65% on average. At the same time, there will be rains in Eastern Europe.
In Australia, the weather is favorable for wheat, barley and canola, but the lack of precipitation in some regions worsens the harvest prospects. Harvesting is picking up, and the rainy season is coming to an end, but it has created good conditions for sorghum and cotton planting, which will begin in November.
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