Precipitation deficit in Ukraine, heavy rains in the US and favorable conditions in South America will affect markets in the coming weeks

Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are actively sowing spring crops, and traders’ attention is focused on the amount of precipitation already received and forecast for the coming weeks, which will allow them to assess the prospects for the new harvest.

In most regions of Ukraine , except for the western regions, agrometeorological conditions generally remain difficult and unfavorable, and severe frosts with snow in the second decade of April negatively affected the initial growth of early spring grain and legume crops, spring field work, and flowering of fruit and berry crops. This is stated in the decadal review of the Ukrhydrometeorological Center.

Low temperatures, precipitation in the form of snow, and weak soil warming suspended the sowing of early spring crops, but partially contributed to the replenishment of productive moisture reserves in all soil layers. At the end of the decade, moisture supply in the arable and meter-long soil layer was mostly sufficient and optimal, except for Odessa, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where critically low moisture reserves were observed in some regions.

Temperatures will be above normal next week, which will accelerate the pace of sowing, especially against the backdrop of precipitation forecast for the end of next week.

Conditions are favorable for planting in major U.S. agricultural regions, but heavy rainfall next week could halt operations. However, it will increase moisture reserves, particularly in the Southwest.

In Brazil, the second-crop corn growing area is receiving good rains, which are helping the crop develop. They will continue next week, which will be especially important ahead of the dry season in May-June.

In Argentina, prolonged rains are delaying the soybean harvest. According to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, only 5% of the area has been threshed (31% on average), but the intensity of rainfall will decrease over the weekend and drier weather will prevail next week. The rains improve the prospects for the country’s corn crop, but flooding and delayed harvest could reduce the potential for soybean harvest.

Heavy rainfall in Western Australia is helping to accumulate moisture for sowing winter wheat and rapeseed, and in the northeastern regions, precipitation is forecast next week, so the country’s rapeseed harvest forecasts are still higher than last year.

Tags: crop condition