Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining

According to the Commodity Weather Group, as a result of severe frosts down to -21 oC in the US in the period of January 20-22 in some areas of the plains and the Midwest could have died up to 15% of winter wheat crops, not protected by snow cover.

Last week, amid frost, wheat prices rose by 3.6-4.9%, but then declined again, losing a total of 1-2.4% for the week. However, yesterday the news about the poor condition of crops in the United States, Russia and Ukraine supported prices.

In Texas in good or excellent condition are 42% of winter wheat crops, which is significantly higher than last year.

March wheat futures yesterday rose:

• by 1.8% to 200.4 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.4% for the week),
• by 1.4% to 206.1 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.6%),
• by 2% to 219,6 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1,1%).
• by 2.1% to 229 €/t or 239 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-1%).

In Ukraine, winter crops in almost all regions suffer from a lack of moisture. The situation is still being saved by fairly high temperatures, but the lack of snow leads to drying of the soil. Since the beginning of the active growing season, plants have been lacking moisture and nutrients, and forecasts for the next 7-10 days do not promise significant precipitation.

Against the background of increased sales by farmers, export demand prices for wheat in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine remain stable:

milling wheat – 10400-10600 UAH/t or 218-223 USD/t,
feed wheat – 10000-10200 UAH/t or 209-211 USD/t.

In the Central black earth region and in the South of Russia due to the autumn drought in some areas of winter wheat crops did not get seedlings, but the warm winter helped to restore most of the crops. Currently, about two-thirds of winter crops suffer from a lack of moisture, as precipitation remains below the average annual rate.

According to analysts of Rusagrotrans, export prices for February deliveries of wheat with 12.5% protein increased last week:

• Russian – up to 238 $/t FOB,
• French – by 6 $/t to 247 $/t,
• Romanian – by 9 $/t to 246 $/t,
• American – by 2 $/t to 238 $/t,
• Argentine – by 1 $/t to 229 $/t.

the Ministry of industry and trade of Jordan on 28 January held a tender for the purchase of 120 thousand tons of wheat of arbitrary origin, where it purchased 60 thousand tons at a price of 265,25 $/t from the company Buildcom for shipment on June 1-30, 2025. This indicates a sufficient supply of cheap wheat on the market, which reduces the likelihood of a significant increase in prices.

Tags: prices, wheat, crop condition