Philippines is close to breaking its pork import record

The Philippine meat industry is experiencing a gradual recovery and sustained import demand, as health and economic concerns dictate the pace of production and trade.

The latest official forecasts point to a moderate recovery in pork production in 2025, estimated at approximately 980,000 tons, up 2% from the previous year, following the devastating impact of African swine fever (ASF), which devastated the country in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025.

The ASF outbreak led to a 5.6% decline in pork production in the first half of 2025. This decline is being moderated by disease control and vaccine rollout, strengthened biosecurity measures, and pig restocking programs. However, the pork sector has yet to recover to pre-outbreak levels, particularly among smallholder farmers, who account for more than 70% of the national pork herd.

The Philippine government, recognizing the health and economic impacts, has stepped up efforts through the Department of Agriculture, distributing breeding stock, building high-safety farms, and promoting the use of vaccines such as the Vietnamese AVAC vaccine. At the same time, localized diagnostic kits capable of rapidly detecting the presence of ASF were developed, facilitating the control and restoration of the swine herd.

Despite these achievements, demand for meat continues to outpace local supply. Domestic pork consumption is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, driven by population growth (projected to reach nearly 122 million) and economic growth. Pork remains the primary source of protein for most Filipinos, putting pressure on prices and forcing the government to intervene by imposing recommended maximum prices, although it is struggling to maintain them due to low market activity.

This imbalance has turned the Philippines into a strategic market for major meat exporters. Pork imports are expected to reach 700,000 tonnes in 2025, representing growth of 7%. Brazil has established itself as a major supplier, accounting for more than half of imports in the first half of 2025. It is followed by the European Union, Canada, and the United States. Brazil’s increased market access, coupled with competitive prices, makes it a key partner, while some European countries and Canada are showing signs of decline due to declining volumes and less competitive prices.

In the beef segment, the situation in the country is more stable. Production remains at around 182,000 tonnes, due to structural constraints on herd expansion, despite efforts to improve cattle genetics through artificial insemination and live animal imports. The conversion of agricultural land to urban use and the predominance of smallholder farms are hindering significant expansion of the beef sector.

Despite this, local demand continues to grow, with consumption expected to increase by 2% in 2026. The rise of restaurants and diversified consumption, coupled with a growing preference for processed meat products, have driven growth in beef and buffalo imports.

Imports are expected to increase by 3% by 2026, reaching 300,000 tonnes. Brazil, Australia, India, the United States, and New Zealand top the list of beef suppliers to the country, some of which enjoy preferential tariff agreements.

The Philippines’ trade policy, which provides for a temporary reduction in duties on pork imports until 2028, has facilitated international product flows, helping to contain prices and ensure supplies during critical periods of shortage. Cold storage of imported meat has become a widespread practice among meat producers and processors to prevent potential disruptions related to disease outbreaks or slowdowns in global logistics.

Tags: pork, Philippines