Philippines forecasts further increase in coconut oil prices

According to the latest forecasts from the Philippine Coconut Industry Authority (PCA), published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer, coconut oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to global supply issues and increased demand.

“The unusual rise in coconut oil prices in early 2025 is attributed to tight global supply and increased demand,” the PCA said. The price increase, according to industry officials, was caused by supplier countries prioritizing domestic needs and restricting exports.

For example, Indonesia, which imposed a month-long ban on palm oil exports in 2022, is also considering a temporary ban on coconut exports to support its domestic processing sector amid high prices.

The agency added that disruption to vegetable oil supplies from Russia and Ukraine is also affecting global logistics: “The reduced availability of these essential vegetable oils has pushed global buyers to look for substitutes such as coconut oil… which has increased overall coconut demand,” the PCA explained.

Despite these developments, the PCA said it was not considering setting a price cap because it would require government subsidies “to bridge the gap between the prevailing market price and the administered price.”

However, the PCA would consider the option if the price increase continued “to the point of having a significant impact on other critical sectors such as food and transport.”

Under such a policy, a certain portion of coconut oil production would be retained to meet local needs, such as for the biofuel industry, while the surplus would be available for export.

Indonesia has previously been reported to be looking for new markets for palm oil imports in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, in an attempt to protect itself from the fallout from the trade war with the United States.

Tags: Philippines, prices, coconut oil