Peak frosts in Ukraine and lack of precipitation in Argentina will affect markets in the coming weeks

On February 1-3, Ukraine is forecast to experience a cold snap to -20–30 °C, which will cover the northern and central regions and create a threat of freezing of winter crops in the south and center of the country due to insufficient snow cover. At the same time, it is too early to talk about the scale of possible losses, as temperatures and snowfall are expected to increase from February 4.

In Ukraine, about 5-6% of corn crops remain unharvested, which continues to be harvested during frosts in the absence of precipitation.

Southern Argentina has been experiencing very dry weather for over three weeks, reducing soil moisture and affecting corn and soybean crops, while heatwaves of 30-32°C are straining the plants. Rainfall is forecast this week to bring down temperatures and reduce stress on plants. Limited rainfall is expected in the main corn and soybean growing areas in the coming weeks, which will not improve yield potential.

In central Brazil , on the other hand, the rains are still very favorable for the record soybean harvest, although the southern regions have recently received less precipitation. But this week, additional showers will fall across Brazil, which, although delaying the soybean harvest (which has already been threshed on 8% of the area), will improve soil moisture ahead of the planting of the second crop of safrinha corn.

In the Midwest and Plains of the United States, after a week of frost and snow, warming will come, which will bring positive temperatures during the day, which may lead to melting of the snowpack in some regions. Next week, light frosts are forecast again to -10-15 °C, so the reduction in the snow cover in winter fields may lead to crop damage, although previous frosts did not cause significant damage to crops.

Recent heavy rainfall is helping to raise water levels in the Mississippi and local rivers and improve the logistics of grain exports.

Almost all of Europe has had favorable weather conditions for winter wheat, which is dormant in the north and growing in the south. The same conditions will continue into next week, so there are no concerns for winter crops.

Soil moisture continues to decline in many parts of Australia as local rainfall is insufficient to combat the intense summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms appear unable to provide the necessary moisture to key agricultural areas. Dry weather will persist in most areas into next week, which will not be conducive to the development of reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, the north-east could receive useful rainfall in New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Tags: Ukraine, crop condition